Itaú Unibanco, Brazil’s largest private bank, reaffirmed this week that investors should maintain a 1% to 3% allocation to Bitcoin in 2026, arguing that the cryptocurrency continues to serve as an important tool for diversification and currency protection, despite a volatile year and negative performance for Brazilian investors.
In a detailed report signed by analyst Renato Eid, the bank emphasized that Bitcoin’s behavior differs from traditional assets such as equities, local fixed income, or domestic markets.
Its global, decentralized structure, the report notes, creates opportunities for investors navigating economic uncertainty, inflation pressure, and geopolitical stress. Even with high volatility, Itaú maintains that Bitcoin still holds long-term appreciation potential.
The bank acknowledged that 2025 was a turbulent year for the asset. Bitcoin began the year near US$93,500, swung to the low US$80,000 range, and later hit new all-time highs above US$125,000.
Yet the strengthening of the Brazilian real intensified losses for local investors. While the U.S. dollar fell 3.5% against the real, Bitcoin registered a 16.2% drop in BRL terms, according to TradingView data.
Eid stressed that currency volatility plays an outsized role in Brazil. He noted that in December 2024, when the dollar approached R$6.30, Bitcoin positions recovered sharply, reaffirming its usefulness as a hedge in moments of currency stress. For this reason, the bank argues that the greater risk may be staying entirely out of the market.
Itaú currently offers Bitcoin exposure through the Íon investment platform and the BITI11 ETF on B3, allowing investors to access crypto performance without dealing directly with custody.
The report also highlights B3’s preparation for a major phase of large-scale tokenization in 2026, which may further strengthen cryptocurrencies’ role in Brazil’s financial system.
The bank advises investors to build positions gradually, maintain a long-term perspective, and use periodic rebalancing.
Bitcoin, the report concludes, should serve as a complementary diversification tool, with a 1–3% allocation fitting the risk profile of most investors in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.