Prediction market traders are betting heavily that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) could receive a presidential pardon following President Donald Trump’s recent clemency for Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.
Polymarket data shows SBF’s chances jumped from 5.6% to 17% within 12 hours after Zhao’s pardon, reflecting renewed speculation about a possible intervention in one of crypto’s most high-profile legal cases.
Over $6.5 million has been wagered across Trump-related 2025 pardon markets, with $302,090 specifically placed on SBF. A separate Polymarket asking whether SBF would be released from custody in 2025 rose from 4.3% to 19.1%, later settling around 15.5%.
SBF is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence for fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering, following convictions for misappropriating billions in customer funds from FTX. His legal team has filed an appeal seeking a reduced sentence.
Zhao, in comparison, received a four-month prison term for violating U.S. anti-money-laundering laws, as Binance allowed illicit funds to pass through its exchange.
President Trump stated that he had been told Zhao’s actions were “not even a crime” and described the case as persecution by the Biden administration. Trump’s pardon concluded a months-long lobbying effort by Zhao to erase his U.S. felony conviction and potentially return Binance to the American market.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump “exercised his constitutional authority” in granting the pardon, emphasizing that Zhao had been prosecuted amid what some industry advocates describe as regulatory overreach following FTX’s collapse.
Zhao’s conviction, they argue, was part of an effort by authorities to appear tough after Bankman-Fried’s exchange unraveled amid massive fraud allegations.
SBF’s prediction market activity remains a topic of online debate. While overall Trump-related bets are mixed, his official X account retweeted a Polymarket post referencing a potential pardon, fueling further speculation.
Legal experts caution that, despite growing market odds, significant political and legal hurdles make a pardon for SBF uncertain, given the severity of his crimes and his historical support for Democratic campaigns.